Skip to main content
icon for Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?
Geopolitik·Öl

Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?

icon for Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?
Geopolitik·Öl

Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?

Aug. 31

Aug. 31

<25 44.8%

25–29 27%

30–34 20%

35-39 8%

Polymarket

$14,819 Vol.

<25 44.8%

25–29 27%

30–34 20%

35-39 8%

Polymarket

$14,819 Vol.

<25

$2,910 Vol.

45%

25–29

$3,368 Vol.

27%

30–34

$3,749 Vol.

20%

35-39

$1,058 Vol.

8%

40+

$3,733 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, announced in late July 2026 amid broader regional tensions including the Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, has driven a 15-24% drop in Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 266-273 weekly passages, or about 38 daily on average in early August data. A fresh attack on the merchant ship Tihamah in mid-August has reinforced risk aversion, prompting further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and suppressing mainstream tanker volumes by over 40%. These developments position sub-25 daily averages as the leading outcome in Polymarket pricing, reflecting trader consensus on persistent security premia and cautious shipping patterns through month-end. Elevated insurance costs and naval alliance responses add downside pressure while leaving room for modest stabilization above 25 if threats ease.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$14,819
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

IMF PortWatch

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, announced in late July 2026 amid broader regional tensions including the Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, has driven a 15-24% drop in Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 266-273 weekly passages, or about 38 daily on average in early August data. A fresh attack on the merchant ship Tihamah in mid-August has reinforced risk aversion, prompting further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and suppressing mainstream tanker volumes by over 40%. These developments position sub-25 daily averages as the leading outcome in Polymarket pricing, reflecting trader consensus on persistent security premia and cautious shipping patterns through month-end. Elevated insurance costs and naval alliance responses add downside pressure while leaving room for modest stabilization above 25 if threats ease.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$14,819
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

IMF PortWatch

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Verwandte

icon for Spread: Orgryte IS (-1.5)

Spread: Orgryte IS (-1.5)

50%
Orgryte IS
icon for Erstrundensieger bei der LA-02-Kongresswahl?

Erstrundensieger bei der LA-02-Kongresswahl?

95%
Ja
icon for Will OnRe launch a token by December 31, 2027?

Will OnRe launch a token by December 31, 2027?

48%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „<25" mit 45%, gefolgt von „25–29" mit 27%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 45¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $14.8K generiert, seit der Markt am Jul 31, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?" ist „<25" mit 45%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 45% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „25–29" mit 27%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Durchschn. Anzahl der Schiffe, die die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße Ende August durchfahren?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.