Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha port since mid-September 2026, have sustained pressure on Bab el-Mandeb transits despite some carrier resumption of Suez routing. AIS and satellite data show daily averages recently in the mid-20s for all vessels, with tanker flows down roughly 22% year-over-year to about 9.4 per day as of late September amid the Saudi shipping embargo and elevated attack risk. This environment supports the closely matched 20-24 and 25-29 brackets as the dominant market-implied outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over whether incremental capacity restoration offsets persistent security constraints or yields to further volume contraction through October. Key swing factors include naval escort activity, freight rate signals, and any escalation or negotiated pause in Houthi operations.