Iván Cepeda maintains a consistent lead in recent national polls ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, yet the absence of an outright majority keeps the projected margin narrow. Multiple surveys from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and others place Cepeda between 37 and 44 percent, with Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, creating a competitive three-way split that limits any single candidate’s dominance. This positioning reflects a polarized electorate where the divided right-wing opposition has yet to consolidate behind one challenger, sustaining tight gaps in voter intention. Late-campaign momentum shifts, turnout among key regional or demographic blocs, or last-minute endorsements could widen or compress Cepeda’s advantage, while an unexpected surge by either conservative contender might push the outcome toward a smaller margin or even alter first-round placement. Traders price the 5–15 percent band most heavily because current evidence points to a modest rather than decisive first-round result.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 14%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,826 Vol.
$14,826 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
3%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
10%
de la Espriella Win
14%
Valencia Win
1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 14%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,826 Vol.
$14,826 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,782 Vol.
3%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 Vol.
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,092 Vol.
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,106 Vol.
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,216 Vol.
10%
de la Espriella Win
$4,100 Vol.
14%
Valencia Win
$2,260 Vol.
1%
Other
$2,056 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Iván Cepeda maintains a consistent lead in recent national polls ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, yet the absence of an outright majority keeps the projected margin narrow. Multiple surveys from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and others place Cepeda between 37 and 44 percent, with Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, creating a competitive three-way split that limits any single candidate’s dominance. This positioning reflects a polarized electorate where the divided right-wing opposition has yet to consolidate behind one challenger, sustaining tight gaps in voter intention. Late-campaign momentum shifts, turnout among key regional or demographic blocs, or last-minute endorsements could widen or compress Cepeda’s advantage, while an unexpected surge by either conservative contender might push the outcome toward a smaller margin or even alter first-round placement. Traders price the 5–15 percent band most heavily because current evidence points to a modest rather than decisive first-round result.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$14,826Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Iván Cepeda maintains a consistent lead in recent national polls ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, yet the absence of an outright majority keeps the projected margin narrow. Multiple surveys from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and others place Cepeda between 37 and 44 percent, with Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, creating a competitive three-way split that limits any single candidate’s dominance. This positioning reflects a polarized electorate where the divided right-wing opposition has yet to consolidate behind one challenger, sustaining tight gaps in voter intention. Late-campaign momentum shifts, turnout among key regional or demographic blocs, or last-minute endorsements could widen or compress Cepeda’s advantage, while an unexpected surge by either conservative contender might push the outcome toward a smaller margin or even alter first-round placement. Traders price the 5–15 percent band most heavily because current evidence points to a modest rather than decisive first-round result.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$14,826Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iván Cepeda maintains a consistent lead in recent national polls ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, yet the absence of an outright majority keeps the projected margin narrow. Multiple surveys from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and others place Cepeda between 37 and 44 percent, with Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, creating a competitive three-way split that limits any single candidate’s dominance. This positioning reflects a polarized electorate where the divided right-wing opposition has yet to consolidate behind one challenger, sustaining tight gaps in voter intention. Late-campaign momentum shifts, turnout among key regional or demographic blocs, or last-minute endorsements could widen or compress Cepeda’s advantage, while an unexpected surge by either conservative contender might push the outcome toward a smaller margin or even alter first-round placement. Traders price the 5–15 percent band most heavily because current evidence points to a modest rather than decisive first-round result.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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