The primary driver of trader sentiment centers on a reported May 2026 Department of Justice criminal probe into potential perjury by E. Jean Carroll concerning lawsuit funding during her civil cases against President Trump, though one U.S. Attorney has publicly denied any such investigation by his office. This development coincides with ongoing Supreme Court appeals by Trump and the DOJ seeking to overturn the $83.3 million defamation verdict under the Westfall Act, which could shield official-capacity statements. No federal charges have been filed to date, and outcomes remain uncertain given standard DOJ charging thresholds for perjury, the political context of the underlying litigation, and the absence of confirmed referrals or indictments. SCOTUS decisions on the appeals represent the most immediate events that could influence whether any prosecution advances.