Recent geopolitical shocks from the Iran conflict have elevated energy prices and prompted Germany's government to halve its full-year 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5%, directly pressuring trader expectations for subdued quarterly momentum in Q2. This follows Q1's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, which beat consensus but occurred against rising unemployment above 3 million and persistent manufacturing weakness. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between the ≤0.0% and 0.1-0.3% bins because forecasters see limited carryover from fiscal support and consumption amid higher inflation projections near 2.7%, with the path to stronger readings hinging on whether energy costs stabilize before summer data releases. Traders price in these risks through skin-in-the-game consensus rather than point estimates, acknowledging that any acceleration in exports or policy easing could still shift the distribution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert0.4-0.6% 51%
0.1-0.3% 49%
0.7-0.9% 28%
≤0.0% 23%
NEU
NEU
30. Juli 2026
≤0.0%
23%
0.1-0.3%
38%
0.4-0.6%
41%
0.7-0.9%
28%
1.0-1.2%
8%
1.3%+
7%
0.4-0.6% 51%
0.1-0.3% 49%
0.7-0.9% 28%
≤0.0% 23%
NEU
NEU
30. Juli 2026
≤0.0%
$8 Vol.
23%
0.1-0.3%
$5 Vol.
38%
0.4-0.6%
$4 Vol.
41%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Vol.
28%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Vol.
8%
1.3%+
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical shocks from the Iran conflict have elevated energy prices and prompted Germany's government to halve its full-year 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5%, directly pressuring trader expectations for subdued quarterly momentum in Q2. This follows Q1's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, which beat consensus but occurred against rising unemployment above 3 million and persistent manufacturing weakness. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between the ≤0.0% and 0.1-0.3% bins because forecasters see limited carryover from fiscal support and consumption amid higher inflation projections near 2.7%, with the path to stronger readings hinging on whether energy costs stabilize before summer data releases. Traders price in these risks through skin-in-the-game consensus rather than point estimates, acknowledging that any acceleration in exports or policy easing could still shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volumen
$17Enddatum
30. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical shocks from the Iran conflict have elevated energy prices and prompted Germany's government to halve its full-year 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5%, directly pressuring trader expectations for subdued quarterly momentum in Q2. This follows Q1's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, which beat consensus but occurred against rising unemployment above 3 million and persistent manufacturing weakness. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between the ≤0.0% and 0.1-0.3% bins because forecasters see limited carryover from fiscal support and consumption amid higher inflation projections near 2.7%, with the path to stronger readings hinging on whether energy costs stabilize before summer data releases. Traders price in these risks through skin-in-the-game consensus rather than point estimates, acknowledging that any acceleration in exports or policy easing could still shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17Enddatum
30. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent geopolitical shocks from the Iran conflict have elevated energy prices and prompted Germany's government to halve its full-year 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5%, directly pressuring trader expectations for subdued quarterly momentum in Q2. This follows Q1's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, which beat consensus but occurred against rising unemployment above 3 million and persistent manufacturing weakness. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between the ≤0.0% and 0.1-0.3% bins because forecasters see limited carryover from fiscal support and consumption amid higher inflation projections near 2.7%, with the path to stronger readings hinging on whether energy costs stabilize before summer data releases. Traders price in these risks through skin-in-the-game consensus rather than point estimates, acknowledging that any acceleration in exports or policy easing could still shift the distribution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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