Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap on X, which sequenced Grok 4.7 (recently shipped as a 2.1-trillion-parameter reasoning model), 4.8 (2.5-trillion parameters on a new C++ stack, finishing training imminently before RL), and 4.9 ahead of Grok 5, has anchored trader sentiment around a late-2026 window. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after xAI confirmed the model was in training during its January funding round, with no official release date issued. Competitive positioning against Anthropic’s Opus 5, Google’s Astra-class systems, and others, plus Musk’s comments linking Grok 5 to potential AGI-level capabilities, adds uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include 4.8’s post-training progress and any benchmark or timeline updates from xAI that could shift the market-implied odds for a December 31 release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$14,133 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
31. Oktober
8%
30. November
16%
31. Dezember
59%
$14,133 Vol.
31. Oktober
$3,321 Vol.
8%
30. November
$1,260 Vol.
16%
31. Dezember
$4,474 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap on X, which sequenced Grok 4.7 (recently shipped as a 2.1-trillion-parameter reasoning model), 4.8 (2.5-trillion parameters on a new C++ stack, finishing training imminently before RL), and 4.9 ahead of Grok 5, has anchored trader sentiment around a late-2026 window. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after xAI confirmed the model was in training during its January funding round, with no official release date issued. Competitive positioning against Anthropic’s Opus 5, Google’s Astra-class systems, and others, plus Musk’s comments linking Grok 5 to potential AGI-level capabilities, adds uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include 4.8’s post-training progress and any benchmark or timeline updates from xAI that could shift the market-implied odds for a December 31 release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volumen
$14,133Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap on X, which sequenced Grok 4.7 (recently shipped as a 2.1-trillion-parameter reasoning model), 4.8 (2.5-trillion parameters on a new C++ stack, finishing training imminently before RL), and 4.9 ahead of Grok 5, has anchored trader sentiment around a late-2026 window. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after xAI confirmed the model was in training during its January funding round, with no official release date issued. Competitive positioning against Anthropic’s Opus 5, Google’s Astra-class systems, and others, plus Musk’s comments linking Grok 5 to potential AGI-level capabilities, adds uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include 4.8’s post-training progress and any benchmark or timeline updates from xAI that could shift the market-implied odds for a December 31 release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$14,133Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s September 14 roadmap on X, which sequenced Grok 4.7 (recently shipped as a 2.1-trillion-parameter reasoning model), 4.8 (2.5-trillion parameters on a new C++ stack, finishing training imminently before RL), and 4.9 ahead of Grok 5, has anchored trader sentiment around a late-2026 window. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped after xAI confirmed the model was in training during its January funding round, with no official release date issued. Competitive positioning against Anthropic’s Opus 5, Google’s Astra-class systems, and others, plus Musk’s comments linking Grok 5 to potential AGI-level capabilities, adds uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include 4.8’s post-training progress and any benchmark or timeline updates from xAI that could shift the market-implied odds for a December 31 release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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