Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models show Austin under a persistent upper-level ridge, with mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly winds favoring a peak near 104–106°F on August 21. This aligns with the tight market split between 102–103°F (41%) and 104–105°F (43.5%), reflecting modest ensemble spread in high-resolution guidance and uncertainty over exact afternoon mixing and any thin cloud debris. Recent days have delivered 102–104°F readings amid an ongoing Central Texas heatwave well above late-August climatology, keeping trader consensus centered on the low-to-mid 100s. Updated model runs and the morning forecast discussion remain key variables before resolution.