The market-implied odds reflect the Hong Kong Observatory's official recording of a daily maximum of exactly 25°C on May 16, 2026, which aligns with the dominant consensus outcome. This value sits near the upper end of the May climatological range for the region, where average highs typically reach 26–28°C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure patterns and light southerly flow. No significant model revisions or observational discrepancies emerged from the final post-analysis, keeping the probability of deviation below measurable thresholds. A realistic challenge would require a verified correction to the hourly temperature series due to instrument calibration issues or station relocation, events that have occurred only rarely in the observatory's long-term record.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$303,885 Vol.
$303,885 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$303,885 Vol.
$303,885 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds reflect the Hong Kong Observatory's official recording of a daily maximum of exactly 25°C on May 16, 2026, which aligns with the dominant consensus outcome. This value sits near the upper end of the May climatological range for the region, where average highs typically reach 26–28°C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure patterns and light southerly flow. No significant model revisions or observational discrepancies emerged from the final post-analysis, keeping the probability of deviation below measurable thresholds. A realistic challenge would require a verified correction to the hourly temperature series due to instrument calibration issues or station relocation, events that have occurred only rarely in the observatory's long-term record.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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