Recent forecast model consensus from meteorological agencies points to a daily maximum near 27°C in Moscow on August 5, 2026, as the dominant driver behind the 59.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Early August conditions reflect a modest warm anomaly relative to the 21–23°C long-term August average high, with recent daily maxima reaching 28–31°C amid clear skies and light winds, yet steering patterns and diurnal cooling are expected to limit further intensification. Lower probabilities for 28°C or 26°C capture residual uncertainty in afternoon peak timing and local urban heat effects, while odds below 26°C or above 29°C remain minimal given stable high-pressure dominance and no incoming frontal systems. Updated runs later today will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Moskau am 5. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Moskau am 5. August?
27°C 60%
28°C 20%
26°C 18%
29°C 3%
$14,012 Vol.
$14,012 Vol.
5. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
18%
27°C
60%
28°C
20%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C oder mehr
<1%
27°C 60%
28°C 20%
26°C 18%
29°C 3%
$14,012 Vol.
$14,012 Vol.
5. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
$1,359 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$418 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$601 Vol.
1%
26°C
$926 Vol.
18%
27°C
$1,945 Vol.
60%
28°C
$1,723 Vol.
20%
29°C
$1,037 Vol.
3%
30°C
$265 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$808 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$2,953 Vol.
<1%
33°C oder mehr
$1,978 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from meteorological agencies points to a daily maximum near 27°C in Moscow on August 5, 2026, as the dominant driver behind the 59.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Early August conditions reflect a modest warm anomaly relative to the 21–23°C long-term August average high, with recent daily maxima reaching 28–31°C amid clear skies and light winds, yet steering patterns and diurnal cooling are expected to limit further intensification. Lower probabilities for 28°C or 26°C capture residual uncertainty in afternoon peak timing and local urban heat effects, while odds below 26°C or above 29°C remain minimal given stable high-pressure dominance and no incoming frontal systems. Updated runs later today will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$14,012Enddatum
5. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from meteorological agencies points to a daily maximum near 27°C in Moscow on August 5, 2026, as the dominant driver behind the 59.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Early August conditions reflect a modest warm anomaly relative to the 21–23°C long-term August average high, with recent daily maxima reaching 28–31°C amid clear skies and light winds, yet steering patterns and diurnal cooling are expected to limit further intensification. Lower probabilities for 28°C or 26°C capture residual uncertainty in afternoon peak timing and local urban heat effects, while odds below 26°C or above 29°C remain minimal given stable high-pressure dominance and no incoming frontal systems. Updated runs later today will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$14,012Enddatum
5. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from meteorological agencies points to a daily maximum near 27°C in Moscow on August 5, 2026, as the dominant driver behind the 59.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Early August conditions reflect a modest warm anomaly relative to the 21–23°C long-term August average high, with recent daily maxima reaching 28–31°C amid clear skies and light winds, yet steering patterns and diurnal cooling are expected to limit further intensification. Lower probabilities for 28°C or 26°C capture residual uncertainty in afternoon peak timing and local urban heat effects, while odds below 26°C or above 29°C remain minimal given stable high-pressure dominance and no incoming frontal systems. Updated runs later today will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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