Forecast models from European meteorological services indicate a peak temperature in Warsaw on August 5, 2026, most likely reaching 37–38°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge and southerly flow advecting warm air from the south. This aligns with the market's heaviest weighting on those two outcomes. A broader Central European heatwave, including Poland's recent national records above 40°C in late June, has elevated baseline temperatures, though cloud cover and timing of the daily maximum introduce modest uncertainty in exact readings at official stations. Updated short-range ensembles continue to cluster tightly around these values, supporting the current trader consensus while leaving room for minor revisions as real-time observations accumulate.