Recent MetService forecasts project a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on May 18 under fine conditions and light southeasterly winds, aligning with the market's leading 14°C outcome at 49% implied probability. Autumn synoptic patterns over the Cook Strait region, featuring cooler southerly flows and limited daytime heating, support this consensus while ensemble models introduce modest uncertainty that elevates the 15°C contract to 37.5%. Historical May averages near 14–15°C provide climatological context, and any late-model shift in wind strength or cloud cover could adjust the peak by a degree. Traders appear to price the narrow forecast window and typical one-degree resolution risk for this time of year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Wellington am 18. Mai?
14°C 50%
15°C 37%
13°C 10.0%
12°C 3.0%
$30,912 Vol.
$30,912 Vol.
8°C oder darunter
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
10%
14°C
50%
15°C
37%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C oder höher
<1%
14°C 50%
15°C 37%
13°C 10.0%
12°C 3.0%
$30,912 Vol.
$30,912 Vol.
8°C oder darunter
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
10%
14°C
50%
15°C
37%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNRecent MetService forecasts project a 14°C daily maximum for Wellington on May 18 under fine conditions and light southeasterly winds, aligning with the market's leading 14°C outcome at 49% implied probability. Autumn synoptic patterns over the Cook Strait region, featuring cooler southerly flows and limited daytime heating, support this consensus while ensemble models introduce modest uncertainty that elevates the 15°C contract to 37.5%. Historical May averages near 14–15°C provide climatological context, and any late-model shift in wind strength or cloud cover could adjust the peak by a degree. Traders appear to price the narrow forecast window and typical one-degree resolution risk for this time of year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen