**Houthi territorial gains in early September 2026, including the seizure of Mokha on September 10 and Perim Island shortly after, have elevated security risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving trader consensus toward sharply lower weekly transits.** These advances tightened Houthi influence over the chokepoint, prompting more vessels—particularly Saudi-linked tankers—to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, transmit AIS signals less consistently, or avoid the area altogether amid higher war-risk premiums and blockade declarations. Kpler and other tracking data show daily commodity vessel crossings falling to the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September from prior averages near 30, with specific days like September 14 registering only 21 transits. This contraction, compounded by broader Red Sea disruptions and selective carrier caution despite some Suez service restarts, underpins the 64.5% implied probability for fewer than 170 ships in the week of September 14. Upcoming resolution will hinge on whether traffic stabilizes or sees further pullback as operators reassess exposure.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 14. September?
Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 14. September?
<170 65%
190-209 7%
210-229 7%
170-189 5%
$13,817 Vol.
$13,817 Vol.
20. Sep. 2026
<170
65%
170-189
11%
190-209
7%
210-229
7%
230+
3%
<170 65%
190-209 7%
210-229 7%
170-189 5%
$13,817 Vol.
$13,817 Vol.
20. Sep. 2026
<170
$5,502 Vol.
65%
170-189
$2,746 Vol.
11%
190-209
$2,723 Vol.
7%
210-229
$1,367 Vol.
7%
230+
$1,479 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Houthi territorial gains in early September 2026, including the seizure of Mokha on September 10 and Perim Island shortly after, have elevated security risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving trader consensus toward sharply lower weekly transits.** These advances tightened Houthi influence over the chokepoint, prompting more vessels—particularly Saudi-linked tankers—to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, transmit AIS signals less consistently, or avoid the area altogether amid higher war-risk premiums and blockade declarations. Kpler and other tracking data show daily commodity vessel crossings falling to the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September from prior averages near 30, with specific days like September 14 registering only 21 transits. This contraction, compounded by broader Red Sea disruptions and selective carrier caution despite some Suez service restarts, underpins the 64.5% implied probability for fewer than 170 ships in the week of September 14. Upcoming resolution will hinge on whether traffic stabilizes or sees further pullback as operators reassess exposure.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$13,817Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Houthi territorial gains in early September 2026, including the seizure of Mokha on September 10 and Perim Island shortly after, have elevated security risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving trader consensus toward sharply lower weekly transits.** These advances tightened Houthi influence over the chokepoint, prompting more vessels—particularly Saudi-linked tankers—to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, transmit AIS signals less consistently, or avoid the area altogether amid higher war-risk premiums and blockade declarations. Kpler and other tracking data show daily commodity vessel crossings falling to the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September from prior averages near 30, with specific days like September 14 registering only 21 transits. This contraction, compounded by broader Red Sea disruptions and selective carrier caution despite some Suez service restarts, underpins the 64.5% implied probability for fewer than 170 ships in the week of September 14. Upcoming resolution will hinge on whether traffic stabilizes or sees further pullback as operators reassess exposure.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$13,817Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Houthi territorial gains in early September 2026, including the seizure of Mokha on September 10 and Perim Island shortly after, have elevated security risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving trader consensus toward sharply lower weekly transits.** These advances tightened Houthi influence over the chokepoint, prompting more vessels—particularly Saudi-linked tankers—to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, transmit AIS signals less consistently, or avoid the area altogether amid higher war-risk premiums and blockade declarations. Kpler and other tracking data show daily commodity vessel crossings falling to the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September from prior averages near 30, with specific days like September 14 registering only 21 transits. This contraction, compounded by broader Red Sea disruptions and selective carrier caution despite some Suez service restarts, underpins the 64.5% implied probability for fewer than 170 ships in the week of September 14. Upcoming resolution will hinge on whether traffic stabilizes or sees further pullback as operators reassess exposure.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird es am 30. September zwischen 25 und 29 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?
77%
Ja
Werden bis zum 31. Dezember an einem beliebigen Tag 0 Schiffe die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße durchqueren?
16%
Ja
Werden zwischen dem 14. und 20. September 25-29 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus durchqueren?
48%
Ja
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen