Houthi forces seized Perim Island (Mayyun) in mid-September 2026 during a rapid advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast that also took Mocha and Dhubab, after internationally recognized government troops withdrew. The move gave the Iran-backed group direct positions inside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint for Red Sea shipping. No verified counter-offensive or negotiated withdrawal has reversed that control in the subsequent two months, despite government statements about regrouping and limited reported clashes. Trader consensus prices the chance of Houthi forces losing primary military control by November 30 at roughly 4 percent and by December 31 at roughly 12 percent, reflecting the island’s defensive advantages, the absence of large-scale external intervention, and the broader regional military balance. Any shift would likely require either a major coalition operation or diplomatic concessions not currently in evidence.