Incumbent Mike Quigley's commanding 65.5% victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, driven by the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. The North Side Chicago seat, with its highly educated electorate, has delivered Quigley consistent 69-71% general election margins over multiple cycles against repeat challenger Tom Hanson, who won the GOP nomination with 71.9% but underperformed historically. Absent polling, markets reflect incumbency advantages and weak Republican performance. Upsets would require a major scandal, Quigley health event, or extreme national midterm Republican wave before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIL-05 Wahlsieger
IL-05 Wahlsieger
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
95%
Republikanische Partei
6%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$3,244 Vol.
95%
Republikanische Partei
$1,491 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Quigley's commanding 65.5% victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, driven by the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. The North Side Chicago seat, with its highly educated electorate, has delivered Quigley consistent 69-71% general election margins over multiple cycles against repeat challenger Tom Hanson, who won the GOP nomination with 71.9% but underperformed historically. Absent polling, markets reflect incumbency advantages and weak Republican performance. Upsets would require a major scandal, Quigley health event, or extreme national midterm Republican wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$4,734Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Quigley's commanding 65.5% victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, driven by the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. The North Side Chicago seat, with its highly educated electorate, has delivered Quigley consistent 69-71% general election margins over multiple cycles against repeat challenger Tom Hanson, who won the GOP nomination with 71.9% but underperformed historically. Absent polling, markets reflect incumbency advantages and weak Republican performance. Upsets would require a major scandal, Quigley health event, or extreme national midterm Republican wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$4,734Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Mike Quigley's commanding 65.5% victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, driven by the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. The North Side Chicago seat, with its highly educated electorate, has delivered Quigley consistent 69-71% general election margins over multiple cycles against repeat challenger Tom Hanson, who won the GOP nomination with 71.9% but underperformed historically. Absent polling, markets reflect incumbency advantages and weak Republican performance. Upsets would require a major scandal, Quigley health event, or extreme national midterm Republican wave before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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