Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains nine to twelve months, unchanged since the June 2025 strikes that destroyed or damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Subsequent 2026 targeting of weaponization-related facilities has further limited Iran's ability to advance its program, with no detected resumption of uranium enrichment. Iran's stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium stays buried under rubble, and ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations focus on verification and restrictions. These developments have shaped trader consensus that a nuclear device is unlikely before 2027 absent major shifts in Iranian decisions or diplomatic outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$602,097 Vol.
$602,097 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$602,097 Vol.
$602,097 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains nine to twelve months, unchanged since the June 2025 strikes that destroyed or damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Subsequent 2026 targeting of weaponization-related facilities has further limited Iran's ability to advance its program, with no detected resumption of uranium enrichment. Iran's stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium stays buried under rubble, and ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations focus on verification and restrictions. These developments have shaped trader consensus that a nuclear device is unlikely before 2027 absent major shifts in Iranian decisions or diplomatic outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$602,097Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains nine to twelve months, unchanged since the June 2025 strikes that destroyed or damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Subsequent 2026 targeting of weaponization-related facilities has further limited Iran's ability to advance its program, with no detected resumption of uranium enrichment. Iran's stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium stays buried under rubble, and ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations focus on verification and restrictions. These developments have shaped trader consensus that a nuclear device is unlikely before 2027 absent major shifts in Iranian decisions or diplomatic outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$602,097Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains nine to twelve months, unchanged since the June 2025 strikes that destroyed or damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Subsequent 2026 targeting of weaponization-related facilities has further limited Iran's ability to advance its program, with no detected resumption of uranium enrichment. Iran's stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium stays buried under rubble, and ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations focus on verification and restrictions. These developments have shaped trader consensus that a nuclear device is unlikely before 2027 absent major shifts in Iranian decisions or diplomatic outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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