Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA remote monitoring showing no significant reconstruction efforts since. This has extended breakout timelines, while ongoing US-Iran negotiations and IAEA access talks—tied to sanctions relief and verification of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—add diplomatic constraints. Traders assign 97.3% probability to no nuclear weapon by end-2027 because these factors have lengthened the path to weaponization beyond the resolution window under current conditions. Late shifts remain possible if talks collapse, hostilities resume, or undetected material enables rapid parallel activity.