US-Israeli military strikes since June 2025, including major campaigns in early 2026, have substantially degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at sites such as Natanz and Fordow while burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Intelligence assessments following these operations estimate Iran's breakout timeline at nine to twelve months or longer, with no confirmed resumption of enrichment activity. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding reinforced Iran's stated commitment against developing nuclear weapons amid continued targeting of related facilities. This combination of physical setbacks, ongoing regional pressure, and verification challenges underpins the market's strong consensus against acquisition by the end of 2026. Potential shifts could arise from undetected reconstruction at deeply buried sites, external technical support, or a rapid policy reversal if strikes cease.