Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning in February 2026, building on the June 2025 campaign that damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, have reinforced assessments that Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains roughly nine months to one year. U.S. intelligence reports from early May 2026 indicate these operations have not altered the prior estimate, leaving limited verified progress toward weaponization despite Iran's retained 60% enriched uranium stockpile. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, IAEA access restrictions to affected facilities, and the absence of confirmed weaponization activities further support trader expectations that acquisition before the end of 2026 faces substantial technical and political hurdles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$604,509 Vol.
$604,509 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$604,509 Vol.
$604,509 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning in February 2026, building on the June 2025 campaign that damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, have reinforced assessments that Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains roughly nine months to one year. U.S. intelligence reports from early May 2026 indicate these operations have not altered the prior estimate, leaving limited verified progress toward weaponization despite Iran's retained 60% enriched uranium stockpile. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, IAEA access restrictions to affected facilities, and the absence of confirmed weaponization activities further support trader expectations that acquisition before the end of 2026 faces substantial technical and political hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$604,509Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning in February 2026, building on the June 2025 campaign that damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, have reinforced assessments that Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains roughly nine months to one year. U.S. intelligence reports from early May 2026 indicate these operations have not altered the prior estimate, leaving limited verified progress toward weaponization despite Iran's retained 60% enriched uranium stockpile. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, IAEA access restrictions to affected facilities, and the absence of confirmed weaponization activities further support trader expectations that acquisition before the end of 2026 faces substantial technical and political hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$604,509Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning in February 2026, building on the June 2025 campaign that damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, have reinforced assessments that Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains roughly nine months to one year. U.S. intelligence reports from early May 2026 indicate these operations have not altered the prior estimate, leaving limited verified progress toward weaponization despite Iran's retained 60% enriched uranium stockpile. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, IAEA access restrictions to affected facilities, and the absence of confirmed weaponization activities further support trader expectations that acquisition before the end of 2026 faces substantial technical and political hurdles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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