Escalating military exchanges between Israel, the United States, and Iran that began with strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation prompted immediate closure of Israeli airspace to civilian traffic, alongside similar measures across multiple Middle Eastern FIRs. Transport officials cited security assessments for the shutdown at Ben-Gurion Airport, with limited operations later permitted under special approvals while most international carriers rerouted. EASA and national advisories continue to flag elevated risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, with the latest extension running through late June 2026. Ongoing periodic strikes, regional instability, and unresolved diplomatic tensions sustain trader focus on potential renewed full closures tied to any fresh escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$15,404,365 Vol.
15. Juni 2026
June 14
8%
June 15
12%
30. Juni
22%
$15,404,365 Vol.
June 14
$454,504 Vol.
8%
June 15
$5,136,947 Vol.
12%
30. Juni
$2,176,174 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalating military exchanges between Israel, the United States, and Iran that began with strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation prompted immediate closure of Israeli airspace to civilian traffic, alongside similar measures across multiple Middle Eastern FIRs. Transport officials cited security assessments for the shutdown at Ben-Gurion Airport, with limited operations later permitted under special approvals while most international carriers rerouted. EASA and national advisories continue to flag elevated risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, with the latest extension running through late June 2026. Ongoing periodic strikes, regional instability, and unresolved diplomatic tensions sustain trader focus on potential renewed full closures tied to any fresh escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volumen
$15,404,365Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalating military exchanges between Israel, the United States, and Iran that began with strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation prompted immediate closure of Israeli airspace to civilian traffic, alongside similar measures across multiple Middle Eastern FIRs. Transport officials cited security assessments for the shutdown at Ben-Gurion Airport, with limited operations later permitted under special approvals while most international carriers rerouted. EASA and national advisories continue to flag elevated risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, with the latest extension running through late June 2026. Ongoing periodic strikes, regional instability, and unresolved diplomatic tensions sustain trader focus on potential renewed full closures tied to any fresh escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$15,404,365Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating military exchanges between Israel, the United States, and Iran that began with strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026, and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation prompted immediate closure of Israeli airspace to civilian traffic, alongside similar measures across multiple Middle Eastern FIRs. Transport officials cited security assessments for the shutdown at Ben-Gurion Airport, with limited operations later permitted under special approvals while most international carriers rerouted. EASA and national advisories continue to flag elevated risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, with the latest extension running through late June 2026. Ongoing periodic strikes, regional instability, and unresolved diplomatic tensions sustain trader focus on potential renewed full closures tied to any fresh escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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