Ongoing tensions from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses earlier in 2026 have driven repeated temporary closures and reopenings of Israeli airspace, including after a June 2026 missile intercept from Yemen. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open with Ben-Gurion operations continuing, though EASA notes elevated risks from Hezbollah and other proxies amid the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed regional military activity. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether escalations could trigger further NOTAMs or sustained restrictions before key dates, with no dominant outcome priced above low single digits. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift closure probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$27,097,891 Vol.
15. Juli 2026
31. August
3%
$27,097,891 Vol.
31. August
$1,066,010 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses earlier in 2026 have driven repeated temporary closures and reopenings of Israeli airspace, including after a June 2026 missile intercept from Yemen. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open with Ben-Gurion operations continuing, though EASA notes elevated risks from Hezbollah and other proxies amid the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed regional military activity. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether escalations could trigger further NOTAMs or sustained restrictions before key dates, with no dominant outcome priced above low single digits. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift closure probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volumen
$27,097,891Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses earlier in 2026 have driven repeated temporary closures and reopenings of Israeli airspace, including after a June 2026 missile intercept from Yemen. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open with Ben-Gurion operations continuing, though EASA notes elevated risks from Hezbollah and other proxies amid the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed regional military activity. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether escalations could trigger further NOTAMs or sustained restrictions before key dates, with no dominant outcome priced above low single digits. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift closure probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$27,097,891Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses earlier in 2026 have driven repeated temporary closures and reopenings of Israeli airspace, including after a June 2026 missile intercept from Yemen. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open with Ben-Gurion operations continuing, though EASA notes elevated risks from Hezbollah and other proxies amid the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed regional military activity. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether escalations could trigger further NOTAMs or sustained restrictions before key dates, with no dominant outcome priced above low single digits. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift closure probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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