Recent private-sector forecasts for Japan's first-quarter GDP point to sequential growth of around 0.4–0.5 percent, supported by resilient exports, steady capital spending, and modest gains in household consumption ahead of the Cabinet Office's preliminary release on May 19. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent brackets, traders appear to weigh the balance between firmer-than-expected industrial production data and lingering downside risks from higher energy costs. This narrow spread reflects the typical last-minute revisions that often occur between consensus estimates and the official print, as well as the limited visibility into inventory and government-spending components. Market participants are also monitoring whether Middle East-related price pressures will begin to surface in the Q1 figures or remain deferred to later quarters.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert-0,3– -0,1 % 6.0%
0,9–1,1 % 5.3%
0,0–0,2 % 3.0%
1,2 %+ 1.4%
NEU
NEU
19. Mai 2026
≤-0,4 %
1%
-0,3– -0,1 %
6%
0,0–0,2 %
3%
0,3–0,5 %
40%
0,6–0,8 %
42%
0,9–1,1 %
5%
1,2 %+
1%
-0,3– -0,1 % 6.0%
0,9–1,1 % 5.3%
0,0–0,2 % 3.0%
1,2 %+ 1.4%
NEU
NEU
19. Mai 2026
≤-0,4 %
$1,317 Vol.
1%
-0,3– -0,1 %
$1,558 Vol.
6%
0,0–0,2 %
$1,384 Vol.
3%
0,3–0,5 %
$911 Vol.
40%
0,6–0,8 %
$616 Vol.
42%
0,9–1,1 %
$792 Vol.
5%
1,2 %+
$3,375 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent private-sector forecasts for Japan's first-quarter GDP point to sequential growth of around 0.4–0.5 percent, supported by resilient exports, steady capital spending, and modest gains in household consumption ahead of the Cabinet Office's preliminary release on May 19. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent brackets, traders appear to weigh the balance between firmer-than-expected industrial production data and lingering downside risks from higher energy costs. This narrow spread reflects the typical last-minute revisions that often occur between consensus estimates and the official print, as well as the limited visibility into inventory and government-spending components. Market participants are also monitoring whether Middle East-related price pressures will begin to surface in the Q1 figures or remain deferred to later quarters.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Markt eröffnet: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$9,954Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent private-sector forecasts for Japan's first-quarter GDP point to sequential growth of around 0.4–0.5 percent, supported by resilient exports, steady capital spending, and modest gains in household consumption ahead of the Cabinet Office's preliminary release on May 19. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent brackets, traders appear to weigh the balance between firmer-than-expected industrial production data and lingering downside risks from higher energy costs. This narrow spread reflects the typical last-minute revisions that often occur between consensus estimates and the official print, as well as the limited visibility into inventory and government-spending components. Market participants are also monitoring whether Middle East-related price pressures will begin to surface in the Q1 figures or remain deferred to later quarters.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$9,954Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent private-sector forecasts for Japan's first-quarter GDP point to sequential growth of around 0.4–0.5 percent, supported by resilient exports, steady capital spending, and modest gains in household consumption ahead of the Cabinet Office's preliminary release on May 19. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent brackets, traders appear to weigh the balance between firmer-than-expected industrial production data and lingering downside risks from higher energy costs. This narrow spread reflects the typical last-minute revisions that often occur between consensus estimates and the official print, as well as the limited visibility into inventory and government-spending components. Market participants are also monitoring whether Middle East-related price pressures will begin to surface in the Q1 figures or remain deferred to later quarters.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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