**Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to fewer than five posts by the Khamenei accounts during September 1–8, 2026, reflecting established low posting frequency.** The official @khamenei_ir account and related handles historically average well under one post per day, often remaining inactive on most days while reposting archival material rather than issuing new statements. Mojtaba Khamenei, elevated to Supreme Leader after his father’s death in February 2026, has communicated almost exclusively through written messages released via state media and Telegram since sustaining wounds in the opening US-Israeli strikes. Recent August 2026 statements on economic pressures, national unity, and relations with Gulf states followed this pattern of infrequent, non-X dissemination. With no scheduled events or escalations in the immediate resolution window expected to alter the controlled-communication approach, the market pricing aligns with the consistent preference for limited direct social media engagement.