Forecast models from NOAA and NWS project Austin overnight lows near 73–78°F on August 24 under persistent high pressure, with historical August averages around 75°F. However, a noted tropical storm threat for August 23–25 introduces forecast spread, as increased moisture, cloud cover, or rainfall could enhance radiative cooling and push the minimum toward or below 73°F, while continued clear, hot conditions might keep it near or above 78°F. This genuine model divergence—particularly in steering patterns and timing of any weak front or moisture surge—explains the near-even market-implied odds on the 73°F-or-below versus 92°F-or-higher outcomes, with middle buckets reflecting lower consensus around typical values. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Austin am 24. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Austin am 24. August?
92°F oder höher 93%
73°F oder darunter 48%
84-85°F 36%
86-87°F 36%
NEU
NEU
24. Aug. 2026
73°F oder darunter
48%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
36%
86-87°F
36%
88-89°F
36%
90-91°F
36%
92°F oder höher
93%
92°F oder höher 93%
73°F oder darunter 48%
84-85°F 36%
86-87°F 36%
NEU
NEU
24. Aug. 2026
73°F oder darunter
$0 Vol.
48%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
19%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$4 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
36%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
36%
88-89°F
$5 Vol.
36%
90-91°F
$5 Vol.
36%
92°F oder höher
$5 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and NWS project Austin overnight lows near 73–78°F on August 24 under persistent high pressure, with historical August averages around 75°F. However, a noted tropical storm threat for August 23–25 introduces forecast spread, as increased moisture, cloud cover, or rainfall could enhance radiative cooling and push the minimum toward or below 73°F, while continued clear, hot conditions might keep it near or above 78°F. This genuine model divergence—particularly in steering patterns and timing of any weak front or moisture surge—explains the near-even market-implied odds on the 73°F-or-below versus 92°F-or-higher outcomes, with middle buckets reflecting lower consensus around typical values. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volumen
$29Enddatum
24. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and NWS project Austin overnight lows near 73–78°F on August 24 under persistent high pressure, with historical August averages around 75°F. However, a noted tropical storm threat for August 23–25 introduces forecast spread, as increased moisture, cloud cover, or rainfall could enhance radiative cooling and push the minimum toward or below 73°F, while continued clear, hot conditions might keep it near or above 78°F. This genuine model divergence—particularly in steering patterns and timing of any weak front or moisture surge—explains the near-even market-implied odds on the 73°F-or-below versus 92°F-or-higher outcomes, with middle buckets reflecting lower consensus around typical values. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$29Enddatum
24. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from NOAA and NWS project Austin overnight lows near 73–78°F on August 24 under persistent high pressure, with historical August averages around 75°F. However, a noted tropical storm threat for August 23–25 introduces forecast spread, as increased moisture, cloud cover, or rainfall could enhance radiative cooling and push the minimum toward or below 73°F, while continued clear, hot conditions might keep it near or above 78°F. This genuine model divergence—particularly in steering patterns and timing of any weak front or moisture surge—explains the near-even market-implied odds on the 73°F-or-below versus 92°F-or-higher outcomes, with middle buckets reflecting lower consensus around typical values. Updated model runs and NHC briefings in the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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