OpenAI commands an 82.5% market-implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August 2026, driven by its recent releases demonstrating stronger autonomous tool-use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with enterprise platforms compared to peers. Traders appear to view these capabilities as shifting competitive positioning ahead of key benchmarks, while Anthropic sits at just 7.5% amid slower agent-specific updates. Lower-probability contenders like Moonshot, ByteDance, and Mistral reflect fewer verified demonstrations in the past month. Upcoming developer conferences and capability evaluations in the final two weeks of August remain the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust these aggregated trader assessments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOpenAI 83%
Moonshot 9%
Xiaomi 6.2%
ByteDance 6%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
OpenAI
83%
Moonshot
9%
Xiaomi
6%
ByteDance
6%
Anthropic
6%
Z.ai
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
Alibaba
4%
Mistral
4%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Amazon
<1%
OpenAI 83%
Moonshot 9%
Xiaomi 6.2%
ByteDance 6%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
OpenAI
$1,154 Vol.
83%
Moonshot
$127 Vol.
9%
Xiaomi
$136 Vol.
6%
ByteDance
$276 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$154 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$116 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$116 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$125 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$142 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$126 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$204 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$195 Vol.
1%
Meta
$97 Vol.
1%
$76 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$116 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$126 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$70 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$84 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI commands an 82.5% market-implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August 2026, driven by its recent releases demonstrating stronger autonomous tool-use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with enterprise platforms compared to peers. Traders appear to view these capabilities as shifting competitive positioning ahead of key benchmarks, while Anthropic sits at just 7.5% amid slower agent-specific updates. Lower-probability contenders like Moonshot, ByteDance, and Mistral reflect fewer verified demonstrations in the past month. Upcoming developer conferences and capability evaluations in the final two weeks of August remain the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust these aggregated trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$3,440Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI commands an 82.5% market-implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August 2026, driven by its recent releases demonstrating stronger autonomous tool-use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with enterprise platforms compared to peers. Traders appear to view these capabilities as shifting competitive positioning ahead of key benchmarks, while Anthropic sits at just 7.5% amid slower agent-specific updates. Lower-probability contenders like Moonshot, ByteDance, and Mistral reflect fewer verified demonstrations in the past month. Upcoming developer conferences and capability evaluations in the final two weeks of August remain the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust these aggregated trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$3,440Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI commands an 82.5% market-implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August 2026, driven by its recent releases demonstrating stronger autonomous tool-use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with enterprise platforms compared to peers. Traders appear to view these capabilities as shifting competitive positioning ahead of key benchmarks, while Anthropic sits at just 7.5% amid slower agent-specific updates. Lower-probability contenders like Moonshot, ByteDance, and Mistral reflect fewer verified demonstrations in the past month. Upcoming developer conferences and capability evaluations in the final two weeks of August remain the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust these aggregated trader assessments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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