Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, a 2.8-trillion-parameter system optimized for long-horizon coding, multimodal tool use, and parallel agent swarms, has driven its 54% implied probability as third-best AI agent lab by end of August. Traders cite its competitive performance on agent and software-engineering benchmarks against closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI, combined with low-cost inference and open licensing that accelerates developer adoption. Chinese labs including MiniMax, DeepSeek, and Z.ai show similar momentum in agentic workflows, while U.S. leaders maintain edges in overall reasoning but trail on price and accessibility. With probabilities clustered near 50% for several contenders, the market reflects rapid capability shifts and benchmark volatility in the agent space.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMoonshot 49%
MiniMax 22%
Mistral 21%
ByteDance 19.0%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
Moonshot
55%
MiniMax
22%
Mistral
21%
ByteDance
19%
Baidu
19%
Alibaba
19%
Xiaomi
18%
16%
Z.ai
16%
Anthropic
12%
SpaceXAI
6%
Meta
3%
Amazon
1%
Microsoft
1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 49%
MiniMax 22%
Mistral 21%
ByteDance 19.0%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
Moonshot
$279 Vol.
55%
MiniMax
$170 Vol.
22%
Mistral
$133 Vol.
21%
ByteDance
$131 Vol.
19%
Baidu
$181 Vol.
19%
Alibaba
$122 Vol.
19%
Xiaomi
$166 Vol.
18%
$60 Vol.
16%
Z.ai
$140 Vol.
16%
Anthropic
$211 Vol.
12%
SpaceXAI
$118 Vol.
6%
Meta
$117 Vol.
3%
Amazon
$175 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$155 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$152 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$20 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$140 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, a 2.8-trillion-parameter system optimized for long-horizon coding, multimodal tool use, and parallel agent swarms, has driven its 54% implied probability as third-best AI agent lab by end of August. Traders cite its competitive performance on agent and software-engineering benchmarks against closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI, combined with low-cost inference and open licensing that accelerates developer adoption. Chinese labs including MiniMax, DeepSeek, and Z.ai show similar momentum in agentic workflows, while U.S. leaders maintain edges in overall reasoning but trail on price and accessibility. With probabilities clustered near 50% for several contenders, the market reflects rapid capability shifts and benchmark volatility in the agent space.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$2,544Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, a 2.8-trillion-parameter system optimized for long-horizon coding, multimodal tool use, and parallel agent swarms, has driven its 54% implied probability as third-best AI agent lab by end of August. Traders cite its competitive performance on agent and software-engineering benchmarks against closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI, combined with low-cost inference and open licensing that accelerates developer adoption. Chinese labs including MiniMax, DeepSeek, and Z.ai show similar momentum in agentic workflows, while U.S. leaders maintain edges in overall reasoning but trail on price and accessibility. With probabilities clustered near 50% for several contenders, the market reflects rapid capability shifts and benchmark volatility in the agent space.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$2,544Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, a 2.8-trillion-parameter system optimized for long-horizon coding, multimodal tool use, and parallel agent swarms, has driven its 54% implied probability as third-best AI agent lab by end of August. Traders cite its competitive performance on agent and software-engineering benchmarks against closed models from Anthropic and OpenAI, combined with low-cost inference and open licensing that accelerates developer adoption. Chinese labs including MiniMax, DeepSeek, and Z.ai show similar momentum in agentic workflows, while U.S. leaders maintain edges in overall reasoning but trail on price and accessibility. With probabilities clustered near 50% for several contenders, the market reflects rapid capability shifts and benchmark volatility in the agent space.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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