Strong semiconductor exports and resilient AI-driven chip demand from the first quarter of 2026 underpin trader consensus for South Korea’s Q2 GDP growth landing in the 3.5–4.4 percent range, where combined implied probabilities exceed 90 percent. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6 percent year-over-year Q1 print—the strongest in five years—reflected 5.1 percent export expansion and 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion, prompting upward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by JP Morgan and KDI to 2.5–3.0 percent. Offsetting pressures include elevated oil prices from Middle East supply disruptions, soft April employment gains, and 2.6 percent inflation that weigh on private consumption and could cap momentum. Upcoming May trade data and global semiconductor orders remain the key swing factors that could shift probabilities between the closely matched 3.5–3.9 percent and 4.0–4.4 percent buckets ahead of the July advance release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 32.6%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.1%
NEU
NEU
23. Juli 2026
<1.5%
19%
1.5–1.9%
34%
2.0–2.4%
21%
2.5–2.9%
33%
3.0–3.4%
24%
3.5–3.9%
60%
4.0–4.4%
43%
4.5%+
25%
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 32.6%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.1%
NEU
NEU
23. Juli 2026
<1.5%
$278 Vol.
19%
1.5–1.9%
$184 Vol.
34%
2.0–2.4%
$351 Vol.
21%
2.5–2.9%
$161 Vol.
33%
3.0–3.4%
$154 Vol.
24%
3.5–3.9%
$319 Vol.
60%
4.0–4.4%
$276 Vol.
43%
4.5%+
$238 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports and resilient AI-driven chip demand from the first quarter of 2026 underpin trader consensus for South Korea’s Q2 GDP growth landing in the 3.5–4.4 percent range, where combined implied probabilities exceed 90 percent. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6 percent year-over-year Q1 print—the strongest in five years—reflected 5.1 percent export expansion and 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion, prompting upward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by JP Morgan and KDI to 2.5–3.0 percent. Offsetting pressures include elevated oil prices from Middle East supply disruptions, soft April employment gains, and 2.6 percent inflation that weigh on private consumption and could cap momentum. Upcoming May trade data and global semiconductor orders remain the key swing factors that could shift probabilities between the closely matched 3.5–3.9 percent and 4.0–4.4 percent buckets ahead of the July advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Markt eröffnet: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volumen
$1,961Enddatum
23. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports and resilient AI-driven chip demand from the first quarter of 2026 underpin trader consensus for South Korea’s Q2 GDP growth landing in the 3.5–4.4 percent range, where combined implied probabilities exceed 90 percent. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6 percent year-over-year Q1 print—the strongest in five years—reflected 5.1 percent export expansion and 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion, prompting upward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by JP Morgan and KDI to 2.5–3.0 percent. Offsetting pressures include elevated oil prices from Middle East supply disruptions, soft April employment gains, and 2.6 percent inflation that weigh on private consumption and could cap momentum. Upcoming May trade data and global semiconductor orders remain the key swing factors that could shift probabilities between the closely matched 3.5–3.9 percent and 4.0–4.4 percent buckets ahead of the July advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volumen
$1,961Enddatum
23. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong semiconductor exports and resilient AI-driven chip demand from the first quarter of 2026 underpin trader consensus for South Korea’s Q2 GDP growth landing in the 3.5–4.4 percent range, where combined implied probabilities exceed 90 percent. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6 percent year-over-year Q1 print—the strongest in five years—reflected 5.1 percent export expansion and 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion, prompting upward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by JP Morgan and KDI to 2.5–3.0 percent. Offsetting pressures include elevated oil prices from Middle East supply disruptions, soft April employment gains, and 2.6 percent inflation that weigh on private consumption and could cap momentum. Upcoming May trade data and global semiconductor orders remain the key swing factors that could shift probabilities between the closely matched 3.5–3.9 percent and 4.0–4.4 percent buckets ahead of the July advance release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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