Recent polling consistently positions the Catalan Socialists (PSC) as the leading party in Catalonia for the November 29 general election, with projections of 18-19 seats and vote shares around 29-31 percent, well ahead of ERC. This underpins the market's strong trader consensus around PSOE. ERC shows gains in several surveys at 17-20 percent while Junts and the Comuns decline, amid left-wing fragmentation and the absence of Aliança Catalana from national lists. Broader national trends, including PP strength elsewhere, have limited impact in the region where PSC maintains a clear edge. Key variables ahead of the vote include final turnout patterns and any late shifts in independentist or left-leaning support.