Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or to trigger an early election under Article 116. Recent statements from Justice Minister Akın Gürlek and presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum have focused on using that provision to schedule a 2028 vote allowing President Erdoğan a third term, rather than pursuing a full constitutional overhaul before year-end. Ongoing commission work and earlier comments from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş about possible 2026-2027 adoption have not produced draft legislation or the cross-party backing required. Traders therefore assign only a 9.5 percent chance of meaningful movement on a new charter in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
10% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
10% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or to trigger an early election under Article 116. Recent statements from Justice Minister Akın Gürlek and presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum have focused on using that provision to schedule a 2028 vote allowing President Erdoğan a third term, rather than pursuing a full constitutional overhaul before year-end. Ongoing commission work and earlier comments from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş about possible 2026-2027 adoption have not produced draft legislation or the cross-party backing required. Traders therefore assign only a 9.5 percent chance of meaningful movement on a new charter in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$7,475Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or to trigger an early election under Article 116. Recent statements from Justice Minister Akın Gürlek and presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum have focused on using that provision to schedule a 2028 vote allowing President Erdoğan a third term, rather than pursuing a full constitutional overhaul before year-end. Ongoing commission work and earlier comments from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş about possible 2026-2027 adoption have not produced draft legislation or the cross-party backing required. Traders therefore assign only a 9.5 percent chance of meaningful movement on a new charter in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,475Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or to trigger an early election under Article 116. Recent statements from Justice Minister Akın Gürlek and presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum have focused on using that provision to schedule a 2028 vote allowing President Erdoğan a third term, rather than pursuing a full constitutional overhaul before year-end. Ongoing commission work and earlier comments from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş about possible 2026-2027 adoption have not produced draft legislation or the cross-party backing required. Traders therefore assign only a 9.5 percent chance of meaningful movement on a new charter in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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