Ongoing diplomatic engagement and established crisis communication channels between US and Chinese defense officials underpin the market's strong consensus against a military clash before 2027. Recent extensions of trade suspensions, scheduled leader summits including the November APEC meeting, and joint working groups focused on risk reduction have reinforced expectations of managed competition rather than escalation. Chinese naval exercises around Taiwan and the western Pacific represent area-denial posturing and coercion rather than preparations for immediate conflict, while internal PLA leadership changes have likely constrained operational readiness. US force posture adjustments in the Indo-Pacific further emphasize deterrence and alliance coordination. A low-probability shift could still arise from an unintended incident during drills, rapid policy changes on Taiwan, or breakdowns in ongoing negotiations.