Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 50%
Meta 50%
Google 50%
Alibaba 50%
NEU
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
50%
Meta
50%
50%
Alibaba
50%
Moonshot
50%
OpenAI
50%
Nvidia
50%
Z.ai
40%
Baidu
38%
Xiaomi
38%
SpaceXAI
38%
ByteDance
29%
Thinky
29%
DeepSeek
23%
Amazon
23%
MiniMax
23%
Mistral
23%
Meituan
23%
Tencent
23%
StepFun
23%
Microsoft
23%
Anthropic 50%
Meta 50%
Google 50%
Alibaba 50%
NEU
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
50%
Meta
$0 Vol.
50%
$0 Vol.
50%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
50%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
50%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
50%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
50%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
40%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
38%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
38%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
38%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
29%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
29%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
23%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
23%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
23%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
23%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
23%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
23%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
23%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$0Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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