Z.ai’s GLM-5.3-max currently holds the top lab position on the Text Arena overall leaderboard with a 1486 Elo rating, driving its 46% implied probability of finishing third in math reasoning by month-end. Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-max and related variants lead dedicated math reasoning sub-leaderboards with scores above 1490, while Google’s Gemini models sit just behind in competitive clusters. The field remains tightly bunched, with Moonshot, Xiaomi, and DeepSeek models within 20–40 Elo points, reflecting rapid Chinese lab iteration on chain-of-thought reasoning and large-context math tasks. No major releases are scheduled before September 30, leaving recent August updates and ongoing blind user votes as the decisive factors shaping trader consensus on the third-place outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertZ.ai 46.0%
Google 20%
Alibaba 17%
Meta 5.6%
$63,236 Vol.
$63,236 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Z.ai
46%
20%
Alibaba
17%
Meta
6%
OpenAI
5%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Anthropic
1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai 46.0%
Google 20%
Alibaba 17%
Meta 5.6%
$63,236 Vol.
$63,236 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Z.ai
$6,610 Vol.
46%
$7,237 Vol.
20%
Alibaba
$13,360 Vol.
17%
Meta
$1,923 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$9,925 Vol.
5%
Moonshot
$2,573 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$1,987 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$1,784 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,535 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$2,639 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$2,670 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$2,632 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,553 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,586 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,534 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$743 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$756 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$575 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$916 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$698 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Z.ai’s GLM-5.3-max currently holds the top lab position on the Text Arena overall leaderboard with a 1486 Elo rating, driving its 46% implied probability of finishing third in math reasoning by month-end. Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-max and related variants lead dedicated math reasoning sub-leaderboards with scores above 1490, while Google’s Gemini models sit just behind in competitive clusters. The field remains tightly bunched, with Moonshot, Xiaomi, and DeepSeek models within 20–40 Elo points, reflecting rapid Chinese lab iteration on chain-of-thought reasoning and large-context math tasks. No major releases are scheduled before September 30, leaving recent August updates and ongoing blind user votes as the decisive factors shaping trader consensus on the third-place outcome.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volumen
$63,236Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Z.ai’s GLM-5.3-max currently holds the top lab position on the Text Arena overall leaderboard with a 1486 Elo rating, driving its 46% implied probability of finishing third in math reasoning by month-end. Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-max and related variants lead dedicated math reasoning sub-leaderboards with scores above 1490, while Google’s Gemini models sit just behind in competitive clusters. The field remains tightly bunched, with Moonshot, Xiaomi, and DeepSeek models within 20–40 Elo points, reflecting rapid Chinese lab iteration on chain-of-thought reasoning and large-context math tasks. No major releases are scheduled before September 30, leaving recent August updates and ongoing blind user votes as the decisive factors shaping trader consensus on the third-place outcome.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$63,236Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Z.ai’s GLM-5.3-max currently holds the top lab position on the Text Arena overall leaderboard with a 1486 Elo rating, driving its 46% implied probability of finishing third in math reasoning by month-end. Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-max and related variants lead dedicated math reasoning sub-leaderboards with scores above 1490, while Google’s Gemini models sit just behind in competitive clusters. The field remains tightly bunched, with Moonshot, Xiaomi, and DeepSeek models within 20–40 Elo points, reflecting rapid Chinese lab iteration on chain-of-thought reasoning and large-context math tasks. No major releases are scheduled before September 30, leaving recent August updates and ongoing blind user votes as the decisive factors shaping trader consensus on the third-place outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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