Meta's aggressive buildout of its Superintelligence Labs drives the 77.9% market-implied odds for third-best AI lab by end-September 2026, fueled by major talent hires, multi-gigawatt compute expansions, and the August release of Muse Spark 1.2 alongside open-weight options like Muse Glimmer. These moves have elevated Meta's frontier capabilities and developer ecosystem relative to peers, even as Anthropic and OpenAI maintain leads on key benchmarks such as composite scores and agentic tasks. Google trails at 5.5% amid slower perceived progress, while smaller labs show negligible momentum. Traders appear to weigh Meta's scale advantages and recent model cadence heavily against typical release timelines, though last-minute benchmark shifts or announcements could still influence the final ranking before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMeta 77.9%
Google 6%
Moonshot 2.9%
Alibaba 2.7%
$90,398 Vol.
$90,398 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Meta
78%
6%
Moonshot
3%
Alibaba
3%
Z.ai
2%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
OpenAI
1%
Anthropic
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 77.9%
Google 6%
Moonshot 2.9%
Alibaba 2.7%
$90,398 Vol.
$90,398 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Meta
$12,147 Vol.
78%
$40,003 Vol.
6%
Moonshot
$3,055 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$9,327 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$2,238 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$1,903 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,183 Vol.
1%
OpenAI
$5,600 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$1,931 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,085 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$994 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$669 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$970 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$421 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's aggressive buildout of its Superintelligence Labs drives the 77.9% market-implied odds for third-best AI lab by end-September 2026, fueled by major talent hires, multi-gigawatt compute expansions, and the August release of Muse Spark 1.2 alongside open-weight options like Muse Glimmer. These moves have elevated Meta's frontier capabilities and developer ecosystem relative to peers, even as Anthropic and OpenAI maintain leads on key benchmarks such as composite scores and agentic tasks. Google trails at 5.5% amid slower perceived progress, while smaller labs show negligible momentum. Traders appear to weigh Meta's scale advantages and recent model cadence heavily against typical release timelines, though last-minute benchmark shifts or announcements could still influence the final ranking before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$90,398Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's aggressive buildout of its Superintelligence Labs drives the 77.9% market-implied odds for third-best AI lab by end-September 2026, fueled by major talent hires, multi-gigawatt compute expansions, and the August release of Muse Spark 1.2 alongside open-weight options like Muse Glimmer. These moves have elevated Meta's frontier capabilities and developer ecosystem relative to peers, even as Anthropic and OpenAI maintain leads on key benchmarks such as composite scores and agentic tasks. Google trails at 5.5% amid slower perceived progress, while smaller labs show negligible momentum. Traders appear to weigh Meta's scale advantages and recent model cadence heavily against typical release timelines, though last-minute benchmark shifts or announcements could still influence the final ranking before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$90,398Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Meta's aggressive buildout of its Superintelligence Labs drives the 77.9% market-implied odds for third-best AI lab by end-September 2026, fueled by major talent hires, multi-gigawatt compute expansions, and the August release of Muse Spark 1.2 alongside open-weight options like Muse Glimmer. These moves have elevated Meta's frontier capabilities and developer ecosystem relative to peers, even as Anthropic and OpenAI maintain leads on key benchmarks such as composite scores and agentic tasks. Google trails at 5.5% amid slower perceived progress, while smaller labs show negligible momentum. Traders appear to weigh Meta's scale advantages and recent model cadence heavily against typical release timelines, though last-minute benchmark shifts or announcements could still influence the final ranking before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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