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Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

icon for Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

$552,230 Vol.

30. Juli 2026
Polymarket

$552,230 Vol.

Polymarket

Jacob Tsimerman

$55,145 Vol.

77%

Hong Wang

$90,919 Vol.

77%

John Pardon

$85,803 Vol.

51%

Vesselin Dimitrov

$0 Vol.

49%

Yu Deng

$126,341 Vol.

48%

Alexander Efimov

$658 Vol.

38%

Jack Thorne

$101,593 Vol.

35%

Sam Raskin

$2,706 Vol.

20%

Aleksandr Logunov

$263 Vol.

24%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$84,586 Vol.

20%

Will Sawin

$4,215 Vol.

11%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang’s resolution of the Kakeya conjecture has established her as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Fields Medal race, driving strong trader consensus around her nomination prospects. Recent discussions among mathematicians highlight her breakthrough alongside other leading contenders like Jacob Tsimerman, whose work on the André-Oort conjecture, and Jack Thorne’s advances in arithmetic geometry, shaping industry narrative and guild-style peer recognition. The awards, limited to those under 40 and announced during the July 23 opening ceremony at ICM 2026 in Philadelphia, follow historical patterns where major conjecture resolutions and critical acclaim from the field accelerate momentum. With the ceremony just weeks away, late shifts in precursor signals or additional high-profile results could still influence the final four recipients.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$552,230
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang’s resolution of the Kakeya conjecture has established her as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Fields Medal race, driving strong trader consensus around her nomination prospects. Recent discussions among mathematicians highlight her breakthrough alongside other leading contenders like Jacob Tsimerman, whose work on the André-Oort conjecture, and Jack Thorne’s advances in arithmetic geometry, shaping industry narrative and guild-style peer recognition. The awards, limited to those under 40 and announced during the July 23 opening ceremony at ICM 2026 in Philadelphia, follow historical patterns where major conjecture resolutions and critical acclaim from the field accelerate momentum. With the ceremony just weeks away, late shifts in precursor signals or additional high-profile results could still influence the final four recipients.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$552,230
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Jacob Tsimerman" mit 78%, gefolgt von „Hong Wang" mit 77%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 78¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 78% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $552.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 6, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?" ist „Jacob Tsimerman" mit 78%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 78% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Hong Wang" mit 77%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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