Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the absence of observable PLA force concentrations, logistical surges, or shifts from routine gray-zone pressure such as reduced ADIZ incursions throughout 2026. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate no fixed timeline or commitment to near-term unification by force, while Taiwan has sustained defensive preparations including large-scale Han Kuang exercises without triggering corresponding Chinese mobilization. Diplomatic contacts and stable cross-strait patterns further support the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Plausible developments that could still alter this outlook before December 31, 2026, include miscalculations during military drills, rapid changes in U.S. policy signals, or unforeseen escalatory incidents.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird China bis Ende 2026 in Taiwan einmarschieren?
Wird China bis Ende 2026 in Taiwan einmarschieren?
Ja
$39,741,789 Vol.
$39,741,789 Vol.
Ja
$39,741,789 Vol.
$39,741,789 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Abwickler
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Abwickler
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the absence of observable PLA force concentrations, logistical surges, or shifts from routine gray-zone pressure such as reduced ADIZ incursions throughout 2026. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate no fixed timeline or commitment to near-term unification by force, while Taiwan has sustained defensive preparations including large-scale Han Kuang exercises without triggering corresponding Chinese mobilization. Diplomatic contacts and stable cross-strait patterns further support the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Plausible developments that could still alter this outlook before December 31, 2026, include miscalculations during military drills, rapid changes in U.S. policy signals, or unforeseen escalatory incidents.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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