María Corina Machado remains in exile following Venezuela’s disputed 2024–2025 transition, during which acting President Delcy Rodríguez assumed power with U.S. support. Multiple attempts by the Nobel laureate to re-enter the country, including efforts tied to June 2026 earthquakes that killed thousands, were blocked by airline refusals, airspace closures, and diplomatic signals from Washington that such moves were counterproductive. Machado has publicly committed to returning before the end of 2026 and mounting another presidential bid, while opposition factions engage in formal talks on new elections and democratic transition. Key variables for traders include the timing of any negotiated political opening, Rodríguez government stability, U.S. policy continuity, and potential humanitarian or security triggers that could alter entry conditions.