Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran's Supreme Leader since his appointment by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the February 28 assassination of his father Ali Khamenei during the opening strikes of the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. He has issued written statements on military, economic, and religious matters but has made no verified public appearances, attended his father's July funeral, or released audio or video, with officials attributing the seclusion to security threats and injuries sustained in the initial attack. Iranian sources and President Masoud Pezeshkian describe meetings confirming his continued authority from secure locations inside the country, while regime media has released proof-of-life accounts and appointments to counter speculation about his health or status. Analysts note that his leadership role, combined with assassination risks and the need to project institutional continuity, favors remaining in Iran over departure, though war developments, potential ceasefires, or shifts in collective decision-making could alter security calculations within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$117,848 Vol.
31. Oktober
3%
31. Dezember
4%
$117,848 Vol.
31. Oktober
3%
31. Dezember
4%
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran's Supreme Leader since his appointment by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the February 28 assassination of his father Ali Khamenei during the opening strikes of the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. He has issued written statements on military, economic, and religious matters but has made no verified public appearances, attended his father's July funeral, or released audio or video, with officials attributing the seclusion to security threats and injuries sustained in the initial attack. Iranian sources and President Masoud Pezeshkian describe meetings confirming his continued authority from secure locations inside the country, while regime media has released proof-of-life accounts and appointments to counter speculation about his health or status. Analysts note that his leadership role, combined with assassination risks and the need to project institutional continuity, favors remaining in Iran over departure, though war developments, potential ceasefires, or shifts in collective decision-making could alter security calculations within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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