The U.S. administration's January 2026 operation in Venezuela, which removed Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and a short special forces extraction without occupation or extended ground presence, has shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a broader invasion elsewhere this year. Subsequent policy has emphasized sanctions, diplomatic pressure, counter-narcotics cooperation, and joint security actions in countries such as Ecuador and Cuba rather than large-scale military deployments or regime-change campaigns. No major troop buildups, congressional authorizations, or official statements signal plans for full invasions by year's end, consistent with an approach favoring limited, law-enforcement-framed actions over sustained conflict. These developments underpin the strong market consensus against such an outcome in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
12% Chance
$269,823 Vol.
$269,823 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
12% Chance
$269,823 Vol.
$269,823 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. administration's January 2026 operation in Venezuela, which removed Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and a short special forces extraction without occupation or extended ground presence, has shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a broader invasion elsewhere this year. Subsequent policy has emphasized sanctions, diplomatic pressure, counter-narcotics cooperation, and joint security actions in countries such as Ecuador and Cuba rather than large-scale military deployments or regime-change campaigns. No major troop buildups, congressional authorizations, or official statements signal plans for full invasions by year's end, consistent with an approach favoring limited, law-enforcement-framed actions over sustained conflict. These developments underpin the strong market consensus against such an outcome in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volumen
$269,823Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. administration's January 2026 operation in Venezuela, which removed Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and a short special forces extraction without occupation or extended ground presence, has shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a broader invasion elsewhere this year. Subsequent policy has emphasized sanctions, diplomatic pressure, counter-narcotics cooperation, and joint security actions in countries such as Ecuador and Cuba rather than large-scale military deployments or regime-change campaigns. No major troop buildups, congressional authorizations, or official statements signal plans for full invasions by year's end, consistent with an approach favoring limited, law-enforcement-framed actions over sustained conflict. These developments underpin the strong market consensus against such an outcome in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$269,823Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. administration's January 2026 operation in Venezuela, which removed Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and a short special forces extraction without occupation or extended ground presence, has shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a broader invasion elsewhere this year. Subsequent policy has emphasized sanctions, diplomatic pressure, counter-narcotics cooperation, and joint security actions in countries such as Ecuador and Cuba rather than large-scale military deployments or regime-change campaigns. No major troop buildups, congressional authorizations, or official statements signal plans for full invasions by year's end, consistent with an approach favoring limited, law-enforcement-framed actions over sustained conflict. These developments underpin the strong market consensus against such an outcome in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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