The high 88.5% probability on “No” for a U.S. invasion of any Latin American country in 2026 reflects the narrow scope of recent U.S. actions and the absence of triggers for broader military campaigns. A January 2026 special operation in Venezuela involving targeted airstrikes and the capture of Nicolás Maduro stopped short of territorial occupation or sustained ground forces. Subsequent policy has centered on maritime counter-cartel strikes, sanctions enforcement, and limited joint operations with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia rather than offensive invasions. Regional diplomatic engagement, including efforts to align nations behind a revamped Monroe Doctrine framework, combined with the lack of comparable operations against other states through mid-August, has reinforced trader consensus that large-scale intervention remains unlikely in the remaining months of the year.