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icon for Französische Senatswahl: Die meisten Sitze?
Politik·Frankreich

Französische Senatswahl: Die meisten Sitze?

icon for Französische Senatswahl: Die meisten Sitze?
Politik·Frankreich

Französische Senatswahl: Die meisten Sitze?

Les Républicains 89%

Union Centriste 12%

SER 11%

Polymarket
NEU

Les Républicains 89%

Union Centriste 12%

SER 11%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Les Républicains

Les Républicains

$39 Vol.

83%

icon for Union Centriste

Union Centriste

$11 Vol.

12%

icon for SER

SER

$61 Vol.

11%

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste. The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats. Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.The upcoming September 27, 2026, French Senate election renews 178 seats through indirect voting by a college dominated by municipal council delegates elected in the March 2026 local contests. Les Républicains currently hold the largest bloc in the chamber and maintain strong local bases across many departments renewing this cycle, supporting their heavy lead in trader pricing. The center-right and centrist groups together control a longstanding Senate majority, while left-leaning lists such as SER face structural challenges in the rural and small-town electorates that shape outcomes. With the vote weeks away and no major recent shifts in local alignments or candidate positioning reported, market consensus reflects the continuity of these institutional and geographic advantages.

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.

This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste.

The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).

A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats.

Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.

If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$111
Enddatum
12. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 4:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste. The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats. Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste. The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats. Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.The upcoming September 27, 2026, French Senate election renews 178 seats through indirect voting by a college dominated by municipal council delegates elected in the March 2026 local contests. Les Républicains currently hold the largest bloc in the chamber and maintain strong local bases across many departments renewing this cycle, supporting their heavy lead in trader pricing. The center-right and centrist groups together control a longstanding Senate majority, while left-leaning lists such as SER face structural challenges in the rural and small-town electorates that shape outcomes. With the vote weeks away and no major recent shifts in local alignments or candidate positioning reported, market consensus reflects the continuity of these institutional and geographic advantages.

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.

This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste.

The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).

A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following:
- Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof;
- Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or
- It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats.

Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.

If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$111
Enddatum
12. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 4:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste. The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats. Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Verwandte

icon for Wird SER nach der französischen Senatswahl die zweitmeisten Sitze haben?

Wird SER nach der französischen Senatswahl die zweitmeisten Sitze haben?

48%
Ja
icon for Will Les Républicains hold fewer than 117 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

Will Les Républicains hold fewer than 117 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

45%
icon for Will SER hold fewer than 56 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

Will SER hold fewer than 56 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

39%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Französische Senatswahl: Die meisten Sitze?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 3 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Les Républicains" mit 83%, gefolgt von „Union Centriste" mit 12%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 83¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 83% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Französische Senatswahl: Die meisten Sitze?" ist „Les Républicains" mit 83%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 83% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Union Centriste" mit 12%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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