Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center analysis shows El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with July Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies at +1.4°C and weekly values recently exceeding +2.0°C amid strong ocean-atmosphere coupling, subsurface warming, and westerly wind anomalies. Multi-model consensus projects continuation through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter, yielding greater than 90% odds of a very strong event (often aligned with “super” thresholds around +2.0°C or higher on Niño 3.4 or RONI) and a 69% chance of surpassing all prior events since 1950. This scientific outlook, backed by consistent dynamical and statistical forecasts, underpins the market’s 91.2% implied probability for Yes. Still, inherent model spread leaves room for a weaker peak if atmospheric feedbacks decouple or if late-season cooling accelerates beyond current expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird es diesen Winter (2026–27) einen Super El Niño geben?
Wird es diesen Winter (2026–27) einen Super El Niño geben?
Ja
91% Chance
NEU
NEU
1. Apr. 2027
Ja
91% Chance
NEU
NEU
1. Apr. 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center analysis shows El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with July Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies at +1.4°C and weekly values recently exceeding +2.0°C amid strong ocean-atmosphere coupling, subsurface warming, and westerly wind anomalies. Multi-model consensus projects continuation through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter, yielding greater than 90% odds of a very strong event (often aligned with “super” thresholds around +2.0°C or higher on Niño 3.4 or RONI) and a 69% chance of surpassing all prior events since 1950. This scientific outlook, backed by consistent dynamical and statistical forecasts, underpins the market’s 91.2% implied probability for Yes. Still, inherent model spread leaves room for a weaker peak if atmospheric feedbacks decouple or if late-season cooling accelerates beyond current expectations.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volumen
$5,506Enddatum
1. Apr. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center analysis shows El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with July Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies at +1.4°C and weekly values recently exceeding +2.0°C amid strong ocean-atmosphere coupling, subsurface warming, and westerly wind anomalies. Multi-model consensus projects continuation through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter, yielding greater than 90% odds of a very strong event (often aligned with “super” thresholds around +2.0°C or higher on Niño 3.4 or RONI) and a 69% chance of surpassing all prior events since 1950. This scientific outlook, backed by consistent dynamical and statistical forecasts, underpins the market’s 91.2% implied probability for Yes. Still, inherent model spread leaves room for a weaker peak if atmospheric feedbacks decouple or if late-season cooling accelerates beyond current expectations.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volumen
$5,506Enddatum
1. Apr. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center analysis shows El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with July Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies at +1.4°C and weekly values recently exceeding +2.0°C amid strong ocean-atmosphere coupling, subsurface warming, and westerly wind anomalies. Multi-model consensus projects continuation through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter, yielding greater than 90% odds of a very strong event (often aligned with “super” thresholds around +2.0°C or higher on Niño 3.4 or RONI) and a 69% chance of surpassing all prior events since 1950. This scientific outlook, backed by consistent dynamical and statistical forecasts, underpins the market’s 91.2% implied probability for Yes. Still, inherent model spread leaves room for a weaker peak if atmospheric feedbacks decouple or if late-season cooling accelerates beyond current expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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