Tunisia enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup in a challenging Group F alongside the Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden, with their first match against the Swedes on June 14. Trader consensus heavily favors a group-stage exit at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting the squad’s limited depth and recent form against elite opposition, including heavy friendlies losses to Belgium and Austria. While Tunisia posted a near-perfect qualifying campaign—nine wins in ten matches and zero goals conceded—their historical inability to advance past the group stage in six prior appearances, combined with a young roster and new manager Sabri Lamouchi, underpins the market’s view that progression to the Round of 32 (22.5%) or beyond remains unlikely.