President Trump’s renewed August 2026 effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage-fraud allegations—following the Supreme Court’s June ruling requiring due process—remains the dominant catalyst shaping trader views on her tenure. The White House letter dated August 5 gave Cook 21 days to respond, setting up a potential next legal round before any final action and highlighting ongoing tensions between presidential authority and central-bank independence. Markets continue to price in low near-term odds of departure, consistent with the Fed’s historical insulation from political removal and Cook’s contestation of the claims as baseless. Key upcoming catalysts include her formal response, possible further court review, and the September FOMC meeting, where any perceived erosion of board stability could influence rate expectations and Treasury yields.