Traders assign a 96.4% probability that President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits outside of extreme circumstances such as Nixon’s 1974 departure. Primary drivers include the absence of active scandals, investigations, or health developments capable of forcing resignation in the remaining months of 2026, combined with Trump’s consistent public statements favoring completion of his term and continued Republican institutional support. Speculation from opponents about midterm fatigue or policy frustrations has not translated into concrete indicators of departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event, an unanticipated major scandal triggering widespread party pressure, or unforeseen personal circumstances, though current evidence places these outcomes at low likelihood within the narrow timeframe.