Traders assign 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not sign the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 because he has offered only a brief public endorsement of Dario Amodei’s September essay on pacing frontier AI development, without committing xAI or himself as a signatory to the July employee statement at pacingthefrontier.com. Musk’s track record emphasizes accelerating large language model capabilities through xAI to ensure U.S. leadership, and the original letter’s call for international governance tools clashes with his stated preference for building first. With just days remaining before resolution, no credible reports indicate he will add his name or issue a formal confirmation. A last-minute shift remains possible if Musk seeks to align publicly with AI safety benchmarks or competitive positioning among frontier labs, but current momentum strongly favors the “No” outcome.