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icon for ¿Lapso de Asignaciones Federales el 1 de octubre?

¿Lapso de Asignaciones Federales el 1 de octubre?

icon for ¿Lapso de Asignaciones Federales el 1 de octubre?

¿Lapso de Asignaciones Federales el 1 de octubre?

12% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
12% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Congress has advanced stopgap funding measures well ahead of the September 30 deadline to maintain operations into December, reflecting lessons from multiple FY2026 funding lapses and a shared priority to prevent another impasse before the midterms.** Both chambers passed versions of a continuing resolution (CR) in July and early August 2026. The Senate approved its bipartisan measure 90-6 on August 8, extending current spending levels through December 11 with targeted adjustments and provisions addressing administration priorities and Democratic concerns. The House, which passed a narrower version in July, returns from recess on August 31 to address reconciliation. Senate leaders, including Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, emphasized avoiding further disruptions after prior lapses, including the extended 2025 shutdown and subsequent DHS gaps resolved through April 2026. This early action and cross-aisle cooperation in the Senate signal strong trader consensus against an October 1 lapse. Lawmakers face a compressed post-recess calendar but have demonstrated willingness to use short-term CRs to bridge to full-year appropriations or a later agreement, consistent with historical patterns when election timing and recent shutdown costs heighten incentives for continuity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.

A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,340
Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Congress has advanced stopgap funding measures well ahead of the September 30 deadline to maintain operations into December, reflecting lessons from multiple FY2026 funding lapses and a shared priority to prevent another impasse before the midterms.** Both chambers passed versions of a continuing resolution (CR) in July and early August 2026. The Senate approved its bipartisan measure 90-6 on August 8, extending current spending levels through December 11 with targeted adjustments and provisions addressing administration priorities and Democratic concerns. The House, which passed a narrower version in July, returns from recess on August 31 to address reconciliation. Senate leaders, including Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, emphasized avoiding further disruptions after prior lapses, including the extended 2025 shutdown and subsequent DHS gaps resolved through April 2026. This early action and cross-aisle cooperation in the Senate signal strong trader consensus against an October 1 lapse. Lawmakers face a compressed post-recess calendar but have demonstrated willingness to use short-term CRs to bridge to full-year appropriations or a later agreement, consistent with historical patterns when election timing and recent shutdown costs heighten incentives for continuity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.

A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,340
Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Lapso de Asignaciones Federales el 1 de octubre?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 12% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 12¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 12% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Lapso de Asignaciones Federales el 1 de octubre?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Aug 5, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Lapso de Asignaciones Federales el 1 de octubre?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "¿Lapso de Asignaciones Federales el 1 de octubre?" es 12% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 12% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Lapso de Asignaciones Federales el 1 de octubre?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.