Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underscore balanced risks around 2026 GDP growth, with CBO projecting 2.2% and S&P Global and Vanguard aligning near 2.1-2.3%. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow band, as fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven business investment support moderate expansion while tariffs, reduced immigration, and Middle East energy disruptions exert offsetting pressure. Q1 2026 growth printed at 1.6% annualized amid softer consumer spending, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming labor market releases, inflation prints, and Federal Reserve communications that could shift implied rate paths and risk appetite. The near-even split between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% brackets highlights uncertainty over whether productivity gains will fully counter policy and geopolitical headwinds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
2.0–2.5% 31%
1,5–2,0% 29.8%
>2,5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 9.8%
$58,175 Vol.
$58,175 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
10%
1,5–2,0%
30%
2.0–2.5%
31%
>2,5%
19%
2.0–2.5% 31%
1,5–2,0% 29.8%
>2,5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 9.8%
$58,175 Vol.
$58,175 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$7,449 Vol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$17,234 Vol.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,824 Vol.
10%
1,5–2,0%
$6,632 Vol.
30%
2.0–2.5%
$7,095 Vol.
31%
>2,5%
$15,941 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underscore balanced risks around 2026 GDP growth, with CBO projecting 2.2% and S&P Global and Vanguard aligning near 2.1-2.3%. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow band, as fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven business investment support moderate expansion while tariffs, reduced immigration, and Middle East energy disruptions exert offsetting pressure. Q1 2026 growth printed at 1.6% annualized amid softer consumer spending, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming labor market releases, inflation prints, and Federal Reserve communications that could shift implied rate paths and risk appetite. The near-even split between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% brackets highlights uncertainty over whether productivity gains will fully counter policy and geopolitical headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$58,175Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underscore balanced risks around 2026 GDP growth, with CBO projecting 2.2% and S&P Global and Vanguard aligning near 2.1-2.3%. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow band, as fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven business investment support moderate expansion while tariffs, reduced immigration, and Middle East energy disruptions exert offsetting pressure. Q1 2026 growth printed at 1.6% annualized amid softer consumer spending, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming labor market releases, inflation prints, and Federal Reserve communications that could shift implied rate paths and risk appetite. The near-even split between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% brackets highlights uncertainty over whether productivity gains will fully counter policy and geopolitical headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$58,175Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underscore balanced risks around 2026 GDP growth, with CBO projecting 2.2% and S&P Global and Vanguard aligning near 2.1-2.3%. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow band, as fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven business investment support moderate expansion while tariffs, reduced immigration, and Middle East energy disruptions exert offsetting pressure. Q1 2026 growth printed at 1.6% annualized amid softer consumer spending, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming labor market releases, inflation prints, and Federal Reserve communications that could shift implied rate paths and risk appetite. The near-even split between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% brackets highlights uncertainty over whether productivity gains will fully counter policy and geopolitical headwinds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes