Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments are anchoring trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent rebound following the late-2025 government shutdown, with business investment in AI-related equipment providing key support. Consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO and Goldman Sachs cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from tax provisions offset by tariff pressures and a cooling labor market. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking currently signals stronger second-quarter momentum near 4.0 percent annualized, though market-implied probabilities remain closely split across the 2.0–2.5 percent and above-2.5 percent brackets as traders weigh incoming inflation prints and upcoming FOMC communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
>2,5% 43%
2.0–2.5% 34%
1,5–2,0% 30.9%
0.5–1.0% 12.3%
$28,322 Vol.
$28,322 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1,5–2,0%
31%
2.0–2.5%
34%
>2,5%
43%
>2,5% 43%
2.0–2.5% 34%
1,5–2,0% 30.9%
0.5–1.0% 12.3%
$28,322 Vol.
$28,322 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$3,911 Vol.
10%
0.5–1.0%
$15,332 Vol.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,562 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0%
$1,536 Vol.
31%
2.0–2.5%
$1,894 Vol.
34%
>2,5%
$4,088 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments are anchoring trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent rebound following the late-2025 government shutdown, with business investment in AI-related equipment providing key support. Consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO and Goldman Sachs cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from tax provisions offset by tariff pressures and a cooling labor market. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking currently signals stronger second-quarter momentum near 4.0 percent annualized, though market-implied probabilities remain closely split across the 2.0–2.5 percent and above-2.5 percent brackets as traders weigh incoming inflation prints and upcoming FOMC communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$28,322Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments are anchoring trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent rebound following the late-2025 government shutdown, with business investment in AI-related equipment providing key support. Consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO and Goldman Sachs cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from tax provisions offset by tariff pressures and a cooling labor market. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking currently signals stronger second-quarter momentum near 4.0 percent annualized, though market-implied probabilities remain closely split across the 2.0–2.5 percent and above-2.5 percent brackets as traders weigh incoming inflation prints and upcoming FOMC communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$28,322Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments are anchoring trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent rebound following the late-2025 government shutdown, with business investment in AI-related equipment providing key support. Consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO and Goldman Sachs cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from tax provisions offset by tariff pressures and a cooling labor market. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking currently signals stronger second-quarter momentum near 4.0 percent annualized, though market-implied probabilities remain closely split across the 2.0–2.5 percent and above-2.5 percent brackets as traders weigh incoming inflation prints and upcoming FOMC communications for any shifts in the implied rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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