Traders see 32–33°C as the most probable range for Beijing’s August 22 maximum because current ensemble forecasts from regional models converge on daytime peaks near 32°C amid typical late-summer monsoon conditions. Recent observations show surface temperatures holding in the 30–31°C band with scattered thunderstorms and moderate humidity limiting stronger heating, while urban heat-island effects in the city center add a small upward bias. The narrow spread between the two leading outcomes reflects model uncertainty in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours, with no strong cold-air advection or heat-dome setup indicated. Historical late-August climatology places average highs near 29°C, so the current outlook sits modestly above baseline but remains within normal variability. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and short-range ensembles due in the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.