Recent ensemble forecasts from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models point to mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs in Istanbul likely peaking near 27–29°C on August 22, driven by persistent high pressure and light northerly flow that limits cloud cover while allowing moderate sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus. This aligns with the market's emphasis on the 27°C outcome at 48% implied probability as the consensus band, with 28°C and 26°C trailing at 28.5% and 22%. Limited day-to-day variability in guidance this close to the event, combined with historical August climatology showing typical maxima around 28–30°C, reinforces trader focus on these narrow thresholds ahead of final observational data from official stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 22 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 22 de agosto?
27°C 49%
28°C 27%
26°C 20%
29°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 ago 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
10%
26°C
20%
27°C
49%
28°C
27%
29°C
12%
30°C
9%
31°C
1%
32°C
7%
33°C or higher
5%
27°C 49%
28°C 27%
26°C 20%
29°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 ago 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
24°C
$5 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
20%
27°C
$10 Vol.
49%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
12%
30°C
$22 Vol.
9%
31°C
$27 Vol.
1%
32°C
$5 Vol.
7%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models point to mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs in Istanbul likely peaking near 27–29°C on August 22, driven by persistent high pressure and light northerly flow that limits cloud cover while allowing moderate sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus. This aligns with the market's emphasis on the 27°C outcome at 48% implied probability as the consensus band, with 28°C and 26°C trailing at 28.5% and 22%. Limited day-to-day variability in guidance this close to the event, combined with historical August climatology showing typical maxima around 28–30°C, reinforces trader focus on these narrow thresholds ahead of final observational data from official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$78Fecha de finalización
22 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models point to mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs in Istanbul likely peaking near 27–29°C on August 22, driven by persistent high pressure and light northerly flow that limits cloud cover while allowing moderate sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus. This aligns with the market's emphasis on the 27°C outcome at 48% implied probability as the consensus band, with 28°C and 26°C trailing at 28.5% and 22%. Limited day-to-day variability in guidance this close to the event, combined with historical August climatology showing typical maxima around 28–30°C, reinforces trader focus on these narrow thresholds ahead of final observational data from official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$78Fecha de finalización
22 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models point to mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs in Istanbul likely peaking near 27–29°C on August 22, driven by persistent high pressure and light northerly flow that limits cloud cover while allowing moderate sea-breeze moderation along the Bosphorus. This aligns with the market's emphasis on the 27°C outcome at 48% implied probability as the consensus band, with 28°C and 26°C trailing at 28.5% and 22%. Limited day-to-day variability in guidance this close to the event, combined with historical August climatology showing typical maxima around 28–30°C, reinforces trader focus on these narrow thresholds ahead of final observational data from official stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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