Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 14 at 33°C or below, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) official forecast via World Meteorological Centre Beijing of a 33°C daytime high under sunny skies with light southeast winds and hourly peaks near 32.9°C. This aligns with the tail end of North China's first 2026 heatwave, featuring a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and above-normal May temperatures (historical average ~26°C). Divergence in global models like those powering AccuWeather (35°C) and timeanddate.com (36°C) supports 21% odds on 34°C and 10% on 35°C, reflecting urban heat island potential and short-range forecast uncertainty. Updated CMA guidance expected today could refine these market-implied odds ahead of official observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 14?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 14?
33°C or below 64%
34°C 22%
35°C 12%
36°C 2.5%
NUEVO
$31,499 Vol.
NUEVO
$31,499 Vol.
14 may 2026
33°C or below
64%
34°C
22%
35°C
12%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
33°C or below 64%
34°C 22%
35°C 12%
36°C 2.5%
NUEVO
$31,499 Vol.
NUEVO
$31,499 Vol.
14 may 2026
33°C or below
$5,461 Vol.
64%
34°C
$2,052 Vol.
22%
35°C
$1,852 Vol.
12%
36°C
$2,482 Vol.
3%
37°C
$3,642 Vol.
1%
38°C
$4,076 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$3,331 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$2,625 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$1,674 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$2,739 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$1,592 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 14 at 33°C or below, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) official forecast via World Meteorological Centre Beijing of a 33°C daytime high under sunny skies with light southeast winds and hourly peaks near 32.9°C. This aligns with the tail end of North China's first 2026 heatwave, featuring a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and above-normal May temperatures (historical average ~26°C). Divergence in global models like those powering AccuWeather (35°C) and timeanddate.com (36°C) supports 21% odds on 34°C and 10% on 35°C, reflecting urban heat island potential and short-range forecast uncertainty. Updated CMA guidance expected today could refine these market-implied odds ahead of official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
Volumen
$31,499Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 14 at 33°C or below, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) official forecast via World Meteorological Centre Beijing of a 33°C daytime high under sunny skies with light southeast winds and hourly peaks near 32.9°C. This aligns with the tail end of North China's first 2026 heatwave, featuring a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and above-normal May temperatures (historical average ~26°C). Divergence in global models like those powering AccuWeather (35°C) and timeanddate.com (36°C) supports 21% odds on 34°C and 10% on 35°C, reflecting urban heat island potential and short-range forecast uncertainty. Updated CMA guidance expected today could refine these market-implied odds ahead of official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$31,499Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 12:25 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 14 at 33°C or below, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) official forecast via World Meteorological Centre Beijing of a 33°C daytime high under sunny skies with light southeast winds and hourly peaks near 32.9°C. This aligns with the tail end of North China's first 2026 heatwave, featuring a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting atmospheric subsidence and above-normal May temperatures (historical average ~26°C). Divergence in global models like those powering AccuWeather (35°C) and timeanddate.com (36°C) supports 21% odds on 34°C and 10% on 35°C, reflecting urban heat island potential and short-range forecast uncertainty. Updated CMA guidance expected today could refine these market-implied odds ahead of official observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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