Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
31°C or below 100.0%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$58,444 Vol.
$58,444 Vol.
15 may 2026
31°C or below
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
31°C or below 100.0%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$58,444 Vol.
$58,444 Vol.
15 may 2026
31°C or below
$11,329 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$6,688 Vol.
No
33°C
$9,402 Vol.
No
34°C
$11,296 Vol.
No
35°C
$5,301 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,307 Vol.
No
37°C
$3,174 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,141 Vol.
No
39°C
$2,188 Vol.
No
40°C
$1,780 Vol.
No
41°C or higher
$1,839 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volumen
$58,444Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$58,444Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Beijing's highest temperature on May 15, 2026, reaching 31°C or below, backed by official observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) showing peak readings capped at 31°C amid persistent cloudy skies that limited solar heating. Real-time data from Beijing Capital International Airport and city stations confirmed daytime highs stabilizing around 30-31°C, with southerly winds and overcast conditions preventing further intensification, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 27°C highs but allowing occasional peaks near 30°C. Model consensus from CMA and global forecasts aligned precisely on this cap, with no notable divergences. Resolution hinges on final CMA records; a challenge would require an anomalous unreported surge in late-evening data, deemed highly improbable as temperatures decline nocturnally.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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