**Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas call for sunny and hot conditions with a high near 100°F on August 13, 2026, supporting the market's strong preference for the 100-101°F bin at 62%.** Typical late-August conditions feature high pressure, light southerly winds, and abundant sunshine that allow surface temperatures to climb efficiently, with climatological August highs averaging 95–96°F. Current model guidance and official outlooks show no significant cloud cover, precipitation, or frontal passage that would cap temperatures in the upper 90s, while heat indices near 107°F reflect the expected combination of air temperature and humidity. The modest probabilities assigned to 102–103°F (11.5%) and 98–99°F (27.5%) reflect residual uncertainty in exact peak timing and any minor model spread, but the consensus centers on a peak right at the century mark. Updated forecast discussions and real-time observations through the morning will be the next key inputs for traders.