Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Madrid under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 21, favoring afternoon highs near 31–33°C. This setup, following a warmer-than-average September with limited cloud cover, supports the tight market split between 32°C and 33°C. Key uncertainties include small differences in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any subtle advection changes that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET updates and the next ECMWF run on September 20 will provide the final observational constraints before resolution. Historical September maxima average around 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth currently priced in.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 21 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 21 de septiembre?
33°C 45%
32°C 44%
34°C 9%
31°C 4%
NUEVO
$10,367 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,367 Vol.
21 sep 2026
26°C o menos
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
44%
33°C
45%
34°C
9%
35°C
1%
36°C o más
<1%
33°C 45%
32°C 44%
34°C 9%
31°C 4%
NUEVO
$10,367 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,367 Vol.
21 sep 2026
26°C o menos
$660 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$403 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$135 Vol.
1%
30°C
$119 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$384 Vol.
4%
32°C
$3,926 Vol.
44%
33°C
$3,495 Vol.
45%
34°C
$657 Vol.
9%
35°C
$156 Vol.
1%
36°C o más
$133 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Madrid under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 21, favoring afternoon highs near 31–33°C. This setup, following a warmer-than-average September with limited cloud cover, supports the tight market split between 32°C and 33°C. Key uncertainties include small differences in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any subtle advection changes that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET updates and the next ECMWF run on September 20 will provide the final observational constraints before resolution. Historical September maxima average around 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth currently priced in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$10,367Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Madrid under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 21, favoring afternoon highs near 31–33°C. This setup, following a warmer-than-average September with limited cloud cover, supports the tight market split between 32°C and 33°C. Key uncertainties include small differences in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any subtle advection changes that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET updates and the next ECMWF run on September 20 will provide the final observational constraints before resolution. Historical September maxima average around 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth currently priced in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$10,367Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Madrid under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 21, favoring afternoon highs near 31–33°C. This setup, following a warmer-than-average September with limited cloud cover, supports the tight market split between 32°C and 33°C. Key uncertainties include small differences in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any subtle advection changes that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET updates and the next ECMWF run on September 20 will provide the final observational constraints before resolution. Historical September maxima average around 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth currently priced in.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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