The market-implied probability of 100% for a 26°C high in Milan on September 19 reflects the latest observational data and short-range forecast consensus from meteorological agencies, including surface measurements and model runs confirming peak temperatures under stable high-pressure conditions. Mid-September climatology for the region typically features daily maxima near 24–27°C, with minimal variability once diurnal heating patterns and boundary-layer mixing are established. Traders have aligned on this outcome because resolution depends on official recorded highs rather than projections, and current readings show no deviation toward thresholds that would favor adjacent bins. A realistic challenge would require an unanticipated mesoscale feature, such as rapid advection of cooler air or measurement anomalies at the primary station, though such shifts become improbable as the observation window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Milán el 19 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Milán el 19 de septiembre?
26°C 100.0%
19°C o menos <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$43,417 Vol.
$43,417 Vol.
19 sep 2026
19°C o menos
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Sí
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C o más
No
26°C 100.0%
19°C o menos <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$43,417 Vol.
$43,417 Vol.
19 sep 2026
19°C o menos
$125 Vol.
No
20°C
$135 Vol.
No
21°C
$135 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,623 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,290 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,816 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,424 Vol.
No
26°C
$8,909 Vol.
Sí
27°C
$7,665 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,059 Vol.
No
29°C o más
$3,236 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied probability of 100% for a 26°C high in Milan on September 19 reflects the latest observational data and short-range forecast consensus from meteorological agencies, including surface measurements and model runs confirming peak temperatures under stable high-pressure conditions. Mid-September climatology for the region typically features daily maxima near 24–27°C, with minimal variability once diurnal heating patterns and boundary-layer mixing are established. Traders have aligned on this outcome because resolution depends on official recorded highs rather than projections, and current readings show no deviation toward thresholds that would favor adjacent bins. A realistic challenge would require an unanticipated mesoscale feature, such as rapid advection of cooler air or measurement anomalies at the primary station, though such shifts become improbable as the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$43,417Fecha de finalización
19 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied probability of 100% for a 26°C high in Milan on September 19 reflects the latest observational data and short-range forecast consensus from meteorological agencies, including surface measurements and model runs confirming peak temperatures under stable high-pressure conditions. Mid-September climatology for the region typically features daily maxima near 24–27°C, with minimal variability once diurnal heating patterns and boundary-layer mixing are established. Traders have aligned on this outcome because resolution depends on official recorded highs rather than projections, and current readings show no deviation toward thresholds that would favor adjacent bins. A realistic challenge would require an unanticipated mesoscale feature, such as rapid advection of cooler air or measurement anomalies at the primary station, though such shifts become improbable as the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$43,417Fecha de finalización
19 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The market-implied probability of 100% for a 26°C high in Milan on September 19 reflects the latest observational data and short-range forecast consensus from meteorological agencies, including surface measurements and model runs confirming peak temperatures under stable high-pressure conditions. Mid-September climatology for the region typically features daily maxima near 24–27°C, with minimal variability once diurnal heating patterns and boundary-layer mixing are established. Traders have aligned on this outcome because resolution depends on official recorded highs rather than projections, and current readings show no deviation toward thresholds that would favor adjacent bins. A realistic challenge would require an unanticipated mesoscale feature, such as rapid advection of cooler air or measurement anomalies at the primary station, though such shifts become improbable as the observation window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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